:
:
:
:
:
Text Search
Name21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa
DescriptionA high-resolution atmospheric model will be used to dynamically downscale the results of CMIP5 global coupled models to project the anticipated 21st century changes in rainfall, surface temperature, surface wind and surface radiative fluxes over the Mariana Islands and American Samoa. Projections for mean changes and changes in extreme events will be produced at about 1 km horizontal resolution over the islands of Guam and Tutuila, and 3 km resolution over the archipelagos. This work will build on efforts at fine resolution modeling of Hawaii climate and climate change. Detailed high resolution climate modeling results used to drive hydrological or ecosystem models will be saved and made publicly available. FY 12 start. 3 year timeline.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/display-project/5006f8a0e4b0abf7ce733fbd/50118ddce4b0d78fd4e59ba3
NameAtmospheric CO2 Stabilization and Ocean Acidification
DescriptionHere we use a coupled climate/carbon-cycle model to provide information that can help to determine what atmospheric CO2 stabilization level would constitute dangerous interference based on the consideration of changes in ocean chemistry. The results presented here can help in the development of an independent and additional basis for choosing targets of CO2 stabilization levels and allowable CO2 emissions.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Energy
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.stanford.edu/~longcao/Cao%26Caldeira%282008%29.pdf
NameClimate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts
DescriptionClimate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts is a report that was created under the auspices of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a collaborative endeavor involving nearly 100 independent experts. In support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the report assesses the state of climate knowledge, impacts, and adaptive capacity in three sub-regions: 1) the Western North Pacific (CNMI, Guam, Palau, FSM, RMI); 2) the Central North Pacific (Hawaii); and 3) the Central South Pacific (American Samoa). The framework for the assessment includes three focus areas: 1) preserving fresh water resources and minimizing the impacts of drought; 2) fostering community resilience to the impacts of sea level rise, coastal inundation, and extreme weather; and 3) sustaining marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.pacificrisa.org/projects/pirca/report-materials/
NameClimate Change in the Pacific Islands
DescriptionClimate change presents Pacific Islands with unique challenges including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, contamination of freshwater resources with saltwater, coastal erosion, an increase in extreme weather events, coral reef bleaching, and ocean acidification. Projections for the rest of this century suggest continued increases in air and ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and increased rainfall during the summer months and a decrease in rainfall during the winter months. In the Pacific Islands, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is collaborating with the Hawaii Conservation Alliance and climate researchers at the University of Hawaii’s International Pacific Research Center, the Department of Geography and many other Departments, NOAA, USGS, and many others. These collaborations are aimed at assessing historic climate trends and promoting the development of regional climate models that will aid in estimating future climate conditions in the Pacific Islands.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
  • Pacific Basin
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepi.html
NameClimate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research
DescriptionClimate Change in the Pacific is a rigorously researched, peer-reviewed scientific assessment of the climate of the western Pacific region. Building on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this two volume publication represents a comprehensive resource on the climate of the Pacific. Volume 1 presents an overview of the region: analysis of large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, seasonal variability and past climate trends and further develops regional climate change projections. Volume 2 presents individual country reports which provide country-specific projections and relevant climate information.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications/reports/
NameClimate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach
DescriptionThe key goals of our proposed work are (a) to understand how changes in the future climate system base state of the Hawaiian Islands will affect the frequency and severity of extreme events, (b) to support studies of the ecological impacts of climate change on native Hawaiian flora and fauna and (c) to provide information needed by natural resource managers charged with preserving native biodiversity. We will extend our statistical downscaling methods from the previous PICCC project to the latest CMIP5 climate scenario simulations, focus on potential climate stressors such as recurrence and intensity of heat waves and droughts, and we will collaborate with partners from USGS and UH Hilo to integrate the climate stressors into ecosystem response models. FY 12 start. 2 year timeline.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/display-project/4f8c650ae4b0546c0c397b48/50118bd1e4b0d78fd4e59ba1
NameClimate Change, Coral Bleaching and the Future of the World's Coral Reefs
DescriptionThis paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.reef.edu.au/ohg/res-pic/HG%20papers/Hoegh-Guldberg%201999.pdf
NameClimate Projections for Selected Large Marine Ecosystems
DescriptionIn preparation for the IPCC AR4, modeling centers from around the world carried out sets of global climate simulations under various emission scenarios with a total of 23 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. We evaluated the models' 20th century hindcasts of selected variables relevant to several large marine ecosystems and examined 21st century projections by a subset of these models under the A1B emission scenario. In general we find that a subset of the models are able to simulate large-scale aspects of the historical observations reasonably well, which provides some confidence in their application for projections of ocean conditions into the future. Over the N Pacific by the mid-21st century, the warming due to the trend in wintertime SST will be 1°–1.5 °C, which is as large as the amplitude of the major mode of variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. For areas northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, these models projected a steady increase of 1.2 °C in summer SST over the period from 2000 to 2050.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.028
NameContribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
DescriptionThe main activity of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide at regular intervals Assessment Reports of the state of knowledge on climate change. The latest one is "Climate Change 2007", the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The Working Group I contribution to the AR4 provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modeling capabilities.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Energy
  • Transportation/Communication and Commerce
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
NameCoping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios
DescriptionThis study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the committed warming for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year) thermal stress by 2080. An additional societal warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business as usual emissions trajectory to a 550ppm CO2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Energy
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005712
NameEmissions Scenarios
DescriptionEmissions scenarios describe future releases into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and land cover, provide inputs to climate models. They are based on assumptions about driving forces such as patterns of economic and population growth, technology development, and other factors. Levels of future emissions are highly uncertain, and so scenarios provide alternative images of how the future might unfold. They provide an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. They assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Energy
  • Transportation/Communication and Commerce
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Social and Cultural Resources
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/emission_scenarios.php
NameModeling Climate-driven Changes to Dominant Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands
DescriptionThis study will use quantitative vegetation plot data to model dominant vegetation composition. Rather than model probability of occurrence, we aim to generate species-specific models of abundance based on independent variables (rainfall, elevation, substrate age, slope, etc.) using multivariate methods. Species abundance models can then be applied to adjusted climate landscapes in concert with ongoing climate model downscaling efforts. Additional data on growth, reproductive, and dispersal rates of focal species will inform the rates of different species transitions. This will permit us to predict changes to individual dominant species such that the combined models will elucidate potential dominant vegetation even for non-analog climates. FY 12 start, 2 year timeline.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/display-project/4f8c650ae4b0546c0c397b48/501190e1e4b0d78fd4e59ba8
NameNPS Scenario Planning
DescriptionThe National Park Service (NPS) uses scenario planning as a tool to prepare for the long-range impacts of climate change on our natural and cultural resources. The process involves using current climate change projections to develop possible climate and ecological futures. Managers work through a variety of options for the future and develop responses and action plans to be used in each situation. Scenario planning allows park managers to plan for an uncertain future and utilize actions most likely to be beneficial.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttp://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/scenarioplanning.htm
NameOcean Acidification: Present Conditions and Future Changes in a High-CO2 World
DescriptionThe uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the global ocean induces fundamental changes in seawater chemistry that could have dramatic impacts on biological ecosystems in the upper ocean. Estimates based on IPCC business-as-usual emission scenarios suggest that atmospheric CO2 levels could approach 800 ppm near the end of the century. Corresponding biogeochemical models for the ocean indicate that surface water pH will drop from a pre-industrial value of about 8.2 to about 7.8 in the IPCC A2 scenario by the end of this century, increasing the ocean’s acidity by about 150% relative to the beginning of the industrial era. In contemporary ocean water, elevated CO2 will also cause substantial reductions in surface water carbonate ion concentrations, in terms of either absolute changes or fractional changes relative to pre-industrial levels. For most open-ocean surface waters, aragonite undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentrations drop below approximately 66 μmol kg-1. The model projections indicate that aragonite undersaturation will start to occur by about 2020 in the Arctic Ocean and 2050 in the Southern Ocean. By 2050, all of the Arctic will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite, and by 2095, all of the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Pacific will be undersaturated. For calcite, undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentration drops below 42 μmol kg-1. By 2095, most of the Arctic and some parts of the Bering and Chukchi seas will be undersaturated with respect to calcite. However, in most of the other ocean basins, the surface waters will still be saturated with respect to calcite, but at a level greatly reduced from the present.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttps://darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org/bitstream/handle/1912/3180/22-4_feely.pdf?sequence=1
NameOn the Relation Between Large-Scale Circulation Pattern and Heavy Rain Events Over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent Trends and Future Changes
DescriptionThe aim of this paper is to present a statistical downscaling method in which the relationships between present-day daily weather patterns and local rainfall data are derived and used to project future shifts of the frequency of heavy rainfall events under changing global climate conditions. NCEP reanalysis data from wet season months (Nov-Apr) 1958-2010 are composited for heavy rain days at twelve rainfall stations in the Hawaiian Islands. The occurrence of heavy rain events (days with amounts above the 90th percentile estimated from all wet season rain days 1958-2010) was found to be strongly correlated with upper level cyclonic circulation anomalies centered northwest of Hawaii and south-to-north transport of water vapor in the middle troposphere. The statistical downscaling model (SD) developed in this study was able to reproduce the observed interannual variations in the number of heavy rain events based on cross-validation resampling during the more recent interval 1978-2010. However, multi-decadal changes associated with the mid-1970s climate shift were not well reproduced by the SD using NCEP reanalysis data, likely due to inhomogenities in the pre-satellite period of the NCEP reanalysis. Application of the SD to two model scenarios from the CMIP3 database indicates a reduction of heavy rain events in the mid to late 21st century. Based on these models, the likelihood of a widespread increase in synoptic heavy rain events in Hawaii as a result of anthropogenic climate change is low over the remainder of the century.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50314/abstract
NamePacific RISA Hazards and Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
DescriptionThis project investigated the potential of incorporating Climate Risk Assessments into Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA), specifically for climate-related risks, have been established as an interdisciplinary methodology that underpins the development of disaster risk-reduction plans. Because of the extensive risk from multiple types of climate-related disasters and the wide variation among island communities and infrastructures, islands must employ a multi-hazard risk reduction framework. The integration of socioeconomic data and hazard risk layers improves the understanding of community sensitivity and exposure to climate hazard risks and enables decision makers to understand ways that systems overlap to produce risk. The Pacific RISA also reviewed existing disaster risk-reduction plans and has suggested areas in which island governments could improve climate-related disaster planning.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Energy
  • Transportation/Communication and Commerce
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttp://www.pacificrisa.org/projects/hazards/
NamePredicting Impacts of Sea Level Rise for Cultural and Natural Resources in Five Hawaii Parks
DescriptionFine scale digital elevation models and models of sea level rise; GIS products for various sea level rise scenarios for 2100 along the Ala Kahakai NHT corridor in relation to important, mapped features (plant communities, anchialine pools, cultural sites, wetlands, fishponds); GIS products that highlight important nearshore habitats such as anchialine pools and fishponds, and show the likely location of these habitats in 2100 based on sea level rise and surrounding physical and biological parameters.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Source
NameProjected Expansion of the Subtropical Biome and Contraction of the Temperate and Equatorial Upwelling Biomes in the North Pacific Under Global Warming
DescriptionA climate model that includes a coupled ocean biogeochemistry model is used to define large oceanic biomes in the North Pacific Ocean and describe their changes over the 21st century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A2 future atmospheric CO2 emissions scenario. Driven by enhanced stratification and a northward shift in the mid-latitude westerlies under climate change, model projections demonstrated that between 2000 and 2100, the area of the subtropical biome expands by ~30% by 2100, whereas the area of temperate and equatorial upwelling (EU) biomes decreases by ~34 and 28%, respectively, by 2100. Over the century, the total biome primary production and fish catch is projected to increase by 26% in the subtropical biome and decrease by 38 and 15% in the temperate and the equatorial biomes, respectively. Although the primary production per unit area declines slightly in the subtropical and the temperate biomes, it increases 17% in the EU biome. Two areas where the subtropical biome boundary exhibits the greatest movement is in the northeast Pacific, where it moves northwards by as much as 1000 km per 100 years and at the equator in the central Pacific, where it moves eastwards by 2000 km per 100 years. Lastly, by the end of the century, there are projected to be more than 25 million km2 of water with a mean sea surface temperature of 31C in the subtropical and EU biomes, representing a new thermal habitat. The projected trends in biome carrying capacity and fish catch suggest resource managers might have to address long-term trends in fishing capacity and quota levels.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jjp1101.pdf
NameProjection of Changes in the Frequency of Heavy Rain Events Over Hawaii Based on Leading Pacific Climate Modes
DescriptionThis study investigates the frequency of heavy rainfall events in Hawaii during the wet season (Oct-Apr) 1958–2005 and their conditional dependence on the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Heavy rain events are defined by the 95% quantile in the rainfall distribution of the wet seasons. Twelve stations with daily reports of rainfall amounts were used to count the number of heavy rain days during wet seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) indicated that the PNA index (PNAI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) can explain a significant amount of the interannual to interdecadal variability for 9 out of 12 stations. Cross validation showed that PNAI and SOI together explain about 18–44% of the variability in the number of heavy rain events. Furthermore, the MLR model reproduces the trend toward fewer heavy rain events in the years after the Pacific climate shift in the mid-1970s. The MLR model was applied to the projected PNAI and SOI indices that were obtained from six IPCC AR4 climate models. The current suite of AR4 simulations based on the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios projects small and equivocal changes in the mean state of the SOI and PNAI during the 21st century. The covariance between PNAI and SOI in these simulations appears to be stable. To the extent that variations in the frequency and magnitude of ENSO and the PNA mode are responsible for modulating extreme rainfall occurrence in Hawaii, our results indicate small changes in the projected number of heavy rainfall days with large uncertainties resulting from disparities among the climate models.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014923/abstract
NameReefs at Risk Revisited
DescriptionThe World Resources Institute has produced Reefs at Risk Revisited, a groundbreaking new analysis of threats to the world’s coral reefs. This report builds on WRI’s seminal 1998 report, Reefs at Risk, which served as a call to action for policymakers, scientists, nongovernmental organizations, and industry to confront one of the most pressing, though poorly understood, environmental issues. The latest report builds on the original Reefs at Risk in two important ways. First, the map-based assessment uses the latest global data and satellite imagery, drawing on a reef map that is 64 times more detailed than in the 1998 report. The second major new component is our greater understanding of the effects of climate change on coral reefs.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Global
Impact
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://pdf.wri.org/reefs_at_risk_revisited_summary_for_decisionmakers_lowres.pdf
NameSea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer
DescriptionBeing able to visualize potential impacts from sea level rise is a powerful teaching and planning tool, and the Sea Level Rise Viewer brings this capability to coastal communities. A slider bar is used to show how various levels of sea level rise will impact coastal communities. Completed areas include Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Florida, and Georgia, with additional coastal counties as well as Hawaii, Guam and CNMI to be added in 2013. Visuals and the accompanying data and information cover sea level rise inundation, uncertainty, flood frequency, marsh impacts, and socioeconomics.(More…)
ECV
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
Impact
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Transportation/Communication and Commerce
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer/index.html
NameStatistical Downscaling of IPCC Climate Scenarios onto the Hawaiian Islands
DescriptionA linear statistical downscaling technique is applied to the projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change scenarios onto Hawaiian rainfall for the late twenty-first century. Hawaii’s regional rainfall is largely controlled by the strength of the trade winds. During the winter months, disturbances in the westerlies can produce heavy rainfall throughout the islands. A diagnostic analysis of sea level pressure, near-surface winds, and rainfall measurements at 134 weather observing stations around the islands characterize the correlations between the circulation and rainfall during the nominal wet season (Nov–Apr) and dry season (May–Oct). A comparison of the base climate twentieth-century AR4 model simulations with reanalysis data for the period 1970–2000 is used to define objective selection criterion for the AR4 models. 6 out of 21 available models were chosen for the statistical downscaling. These were chosen on the basis of their ability to more realistically simulate the modern large-scale circulation fields in the Hawaiian Islands region.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttp://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/SD/
NameThe Evolution of El Nino, Past and Future
DescriptionWe review forecasts of the future of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled instability of the ocean atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific with global impacts. ENSO in the modern world is briefly described, and the physics of the ENSO cycle is discussed. Particular attention is given to the Bjerknes feedback, the instability mechanism which figures prominently in ENSO past and future. Our knowledge of ENSO in the paleoclimate record has expanded rapidly within the last 5 yr. The ENSO cycle is present in all relevant records, going back 130 kyr. It was systematically weaker during the early and middle Holocene, and model studies indicate that this results from reduced amplification in the late summer and early fall, a consequence of the altered mean climate in response to boreal summer perihelion. Data from corals shows substantial decadal and longer variations in the strength of the ENSO cycle within the past 1000 yr; it is suggested that this may be due to solar and volcanic variations in solar insolation, amplified by the Bjerknes feedback. There is some evidence that this feedback has operated in the 20th century and some model results indicate that it will hold sway in the greenhouse future, but it is very far from conclusive. The comprehensive general circulation models used for future climate projections leave us with an indeterminate picture of ENSO's future. Some predict more ENSO activity, some less, with the highly uncertain consensus forecast indicating little change.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
Region
  • Pacific Basin
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Region/Nation (Grid)
Sourcehttp://water.columbia.edu/files/2011/11/Cane2005Evolution.pdf
NameUnderstanding How Climate Change is Affecting Hawaii’s High-elevation Ecosystems: An Assessment of the Long-term Viability of Haleakala Silverswords and Associated Biological Communities
DescriptionThe Haleakala silversword plant forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community, and its behavior likely reflects wider ecological responses to climate. This species is already exhibiting patterns of mortality related to climate-driven movement towards higher altitudes. This project aims to understand patterns and causes of recent declines in the Haleakala silversword population that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems. Building on extensive research and datasets, this study will collect the demographic and climate data needed to construct a robust population model for the silversword and make future population projections under various climate scenarios. In addition, the project will conduct a range of seedling drought tolerance experiments to clarify causes of recent widespread mortality in the species, and determine methods most likely to lead to restoration success.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/display-project/4f8c650ae4b0546c0c397b48/5011925fe4b0d78fd4e59baa
NameUnderstanding the Science of Climate Change: Talking Points - Impacts to the Pacific Islands
DescriptionNatural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/CCRP/NRR-2011/287. This Pacific Islands document is part of a series of bio-regional summaries that provide key scientific findings about climate change and impacts to protected areas. The information is intended to provide a basic understanding of the science of climate change, known and expected impacts to resources and visitor experience, and actions that can be taken to mitigate and adapt to change.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
  • Oceanic (e.g., Water Temperature, Salinity, Acidity, Sea Level, Wave Height)
  • Terrestrial (e.g., Groundwater, Soil Moisture)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
  • Western North Pacific
  • South Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coastal Flooding/Erosion
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Public Health and Safety
  • Fresh Water Resources
  • Community Planning and Development
  • Social and Cultural Resources
  • Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Recreation and Tourism
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • In-Situ Observations
  • Satellite/Remote Observations
  • Statistical Model
  • Dynamical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttp://www.nps.gov/climatechange/docs/PacificIslandsTP.pdf
NameVulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change - Using Models to Link Landscape, Climate, Disease, and Potential Adaptation
DescriptionThe introduction of mosquitos and avian malaria are considered to be primary factors contributing to population declines and changes in the distribution of many native Hawaiian forest birds. Mosquito and malaria dynamics (abundance, location etc.) are strongly influenced by climate, particularly rainfall and temperature. Successful conservation of Hawaiian forest birds requires an analysis of climate change and its impact on the future disease risk of native bird populations. Key objectives of this research will be to 1) predict changes in avian malaria across space and time as a result of anticipated climate change, 2) evaluate the potential for bird species extinctions, 3) research and consider birds’ genetic adaptation to malaria, and 4) assess the costs and effectiveness of conservation strategies to mitigate impacts on bird populations. This project will provide the first quantitative assessment of the long-term impact of climate change on bird malaria distribution and on Hawaii's unique forest birds, and provide a crucial tool to adaptively manage recovery and promote disease resistance among avian populations. FY 12 start, 3 years.(More…)
ECV
  • Atmospheric (e.g., Air Temperature, Rainfall, Wind speed and direction)
Region
  • Central North Pacific
Impact
  • Drought
  • Heavy Rainfall/Stream Flooding/Mass Wasting
  • Coral Bleaching/Ecosystem Impacts (e.g., Marine)
Sector
  • Ecosystems
Methodology
  • Statistical Model
Spatial Scale
  • Location/Site Specific (Point)
Sourcehttps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/display-project/5006f8a0e4b0abf7ce733fbd/50118f9fe4b0d78fd4e59ba6
26 of 26 records